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Offline Chappy

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North Carolina Aviators Draft Notes
« on: February 05, 2018, 10:06:42 am »
This thread will eventually compile all of my draft capsules.  It is fun to compare my first impressions of players to how their careers turn out.

« Last Edit: February 08, 2018, 08:30:12 am by Chappy »
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Re: North Carolina Aviators Draft Notes
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2018, 08:19:32 am »
2037

We finished as the Federation Cup Champions, so the Aviators finally have the honor of picking last!
We chose a good year to win the cup, because there is a lot of talent in this draft.

1st Round, #20 Overall
Steve Campbell

San Francisco High School Sea Lions - Center Field

17-year-old outfielder Steve Campbell is a diverse player, with good defensive abilities (though raw) and better than average speed.  Hit hitting ability is not outstanding in any area, but he does a little bit of everything, and decently.  Like the Aviators, he's coming off a championship season, winning the AFBL High School Cup with the San Francisco Sea Lions.  He hit .328 with 5 HR in 16 postseason games.  Overall in his HS career, Steve hit .322-20-81 with 21 2B in 99 games.

2nd Round, #40 Overall
Turd Newton

Houston High School Hornets - Center Field

The Canadian formerly known as Ron "Turd" Newson, who legally changed his name to Turd Newton just after being drafted, was the second player added to the Aviators system in this draft.  In many ways, Turd is just a left-handed version of 1st round pick and proud righty Steve Campbell.  Like Campbell, Newton is an unpolished yet capable defender, although Campbell clearly has the better arm.  Both players are good on the basepaths and have solid speed, though Newton is better at bunting; both for average and moving guys over.  They look about the same at the plate as well.  Newton finished his HS career with a .376-20-110 line, with 24 2B and 18 steals.  He hit .444-1-4 in 4 postseason games for the Houston Hornets.

Round 3, #60 Overall
Steve Larson

Riverside High School Golden Hawks - Center Field

In the 3rd round, the Aviators took their 3rd CF and their 2nd Steve of the draft.  Other than being slightly less skilled defensively, he compares pretty favorably to the first two picks, meaning either the Aviators got good value at #60, or they made poor choices at #20 and #40.  Larson is a good small ball player, much like Turd Newton.  He hit .311-35-132 in 98 career high school games for the Riverside Golden Hawks, so he could wind up with the most power of the 3 outfielders selected thus far.  Larson is a clever hitter and a loyal teammate, but some members of the Aviators front office worry he might be a bit selfish.

Round 4, #80 Overall
Don Sanford

St. Louis High School Blues - Second Base

There's a story out there somewhere, but nobody's talking.  Why did Don Sanford, hitting .357-2-20 for the St. Louis High Blues, get released and return home to Columbia, SC just a little more than halfway through the season?  Behavioral problems?  Something else?  Aviators brass did their due diligence and couldn't come up with a reason not to give Sanford a shot, so they drafted him.   A career .362-16-93 line in 112 high school games, Sanford projects to be a capable middle-infielder with the potential for a lot more.  His only weaknesses are his lack of speed and his reluctance to draw walks; he's doesn't strike out often, but he doesn't like to take the free pass.  His 6'5 frame gives him lots of range in the field, and his quickness makes up for his lack of top-end speed.  Sanford has already battled some injuries, which is a concern, but nothing to keep us from taking a chance at him at pick #80.

5th Round, #100 Overall
Jose Bautista

Riverside High School Golden Hawks - Third Base

Bautista looks a lot like Sanford on the surface.  However, he's clearly better suited for 3B than 2B with his fantastic arm strength.  At the plate, they have the same skills and tendencies, and in a footrace, neither player would win.  There's also a big difference in how their High School careers ended.  While Sanford was inexplicably kicked off the team, Bautista had a career year and was named 2037 AHS PL Outstanding Hitter while also winning a gold glove.  He finished his HS career with a .366-53-168 line in 150 games as a teammate of draftee Steve Larson on the Riverside Golden Hawks.

6th Round, #120 Overall
Jesus Reyes

Venezuela - Shortstop

We're finally starting to get down to the bottom of the barrel.  16-year-old Venezuelan import Jesus Reyes is not your prototypical shortstop; he's got only average fielding ability and speed, so he's not going to dazzle you with his defensive play.  And he doesn't project to be a good enough hitter to make a big league club with only average defensive ability.  So, right now, this 2-star prospect looks like a long shot.  That said, he's only 16, so maybe after a few years in the Rookie league we'll know more. 

7th Round, #140 Overall
Tony Frazier

Markham High School Coyotes - Second Base

Frazier hit .320-4-52 in 119 career games for Markham High.  We're mainly drafting for infield depth at this point, and Markham looks like a guy worth taking a chance on.  Not only his he a hard worker, but has good gap power and is tough to fan.  He's not going to hit many HR, but mix his gap power with his .300 batting average potential, and you might have the makings of a crafty second baseman.  He's got below average speed on the basepaths, but his quickness gives him good range in the infield, and he's more than capable at turning tough double plays.  Frazier is by no means a lock, but he could wind up being a 7th round steal when all is said and done.

8th Round - #160 Overall - Mr. Irrelevant
Danny Brewer
Kirbyville High School Drillers - San Luis Obispo College Monsoon - Third Base

The Aviators spent their last pick - and the last pick in the draft - on 'veteran' Danny Brewer.  A high character third baseman that can already play the field at the major league level, Brewer will join the single-A OBX Privateer squad rather than the R Delray Beach team with the rest of the new players.  20 years old and the only college player selected by NC, Brewer is coming off a .295-15-51 campaign for San Luis Obispo College, where he was named an All-American this season.  Slow as molasses, Brewer has average hitting ability across the board.  He could wind up as a reserve infielder some day, or he could spend his whole career in A ball.  But that's the kind of uncertainty you get in the last round.
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« Last Edit: February 08, 2018, 08:48:33 am by Chappy »
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Re: North Carolina Aviators Draft Notes
« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2018, 08:08:31 am »
2038

We finished as the Federation Cup runner-ups, so we have the 19th pick.
We also have Kentucky's 3rd round pick (#52 overall), which we acquired in a trade for P Yu-zeng Sung.
We also nearly had Pennsylvania's 2nd round pick, which we acquired in a trade for C Dan Curry, but that will now be a 2039 pick because I was slow to respond.   :)

As far as our needs go, we need 3 infielders, 4 outfielders and a pair of pitchers.  With 9 picks in the draft, we will be drafting for need rather than best available player this season.

1st Round, #19 Overall
Jim Simpson
Dallas High School Hammerheads - Third Base

17-year-old Jim Simpson has been tabbed as our first round pick.  A hard working young man and a good leader, Jim led his Dallas High squad to the postseason thanks to a .381-12-68 line in 49 games.  He's raw, as are most 17-year-old players, but he projects to be a good power hitter that is hard to fan, and he should be an above average contact guy who can also draw a fair number of walks.  Defensively, he need a lot of work, but his glove is great and his arm is good.  He needs to develop his footwork so he can cover a little more ground.  He looks to be strictly a 3B or 1B; he's too slow for the outfield and too clumsy to handle turning DP's in the middle infield.  He'll be headed to Delray Beach (R) to begin his pro career, and that team could use someone with Jim's intangibles very, very desperately.

2nd Round, #39 Overall
Luis Martinez

Lackland AFB High School Bombers - Shortstop

The Aviators take another infielder, opting for 17-year-old Bowie, Maryland native Luis Martinez.  Luis, whose father is an actual Aviator in the Air Force, has one of the strongest arms our scouts have ever seen, and he's got a good glove as well.  His range is just average, but he's got excellent speed and should develop into a nice defensive shortstop.  Luis is good at avoiding the strikeout, and just slightly above average at hitting and drawing walks.  His power - both to the gaps and over the fences - is very average, as is his base running.  Don't ask him to bunt, or you'll regret it.

Luis showed a lot of improvement from his Junior to Senior year, going from a .328 average to a .361 mark.  His career line at Lackland High: .345-17-91 in 100 games played. 

With all the trouble we've had in Delray Beach (R) lately, we're taking a closer look at everyone's personality this year.  Luis is loyal, but he's also a bit selfish.  He's a pretty average Joe in all other aspects.  He should fly under the radar in the locker room, unless his selfishness brings down some of the other players.  At least he doesn't have the character flaws we've seen in some of our other draftees over the past few seasons.

3rd Round, #52 Overall (Pick Acquired from Kentucky for P Yu-zeng Sung)
Carlos 'Stoner' Pike

Houston High School Hornets - Shortstop

With their third pick, the Aviators take their third (and final) infielder of the draft.  He projects to be a slightly above average hitter with slightly above average power.  He's got great hand-eye coordination, but he is not patient at the plate.  He's got good range, a good glove, a good arm, and is gifted at turning two.  Scouts are not confident he will transition to pro ball, but at the high school level he was better than our previous two picks. 

Carlos was an absolute beast at the plate in high school, hitting .420 and earning the nickname 'Stoner'.  In 99 career games, he blasted 29 homers and drove in 156 runs.  He once blasted 3 HR in a game vs Mesa High, and he had two different 22-game hitting streaks during his career. 

Pike is well known in the Houston area for his play, both at the plate and in the field.  His junior year, he was runner-up for the AHS RL Outstanding Hitter Award, and his senior year he won the Glove Wizard Award at SS. 

Finally, Pike is a great leader, something sorely needed in Delray Beach (R) where he will be assigned. 

3rd Round, #59 Overall
Jesus Chavez

Long Beach High School Terriers - Relief Pitcher

Jesus has good height (6'5") and is the cerebral type of pitcher North Carolina loves to draft. 

He was actually available last year, but was undrafted and returned to high school.  In his first two years of high school, he posted ERA's of 6.26 and 5.40, so it's no wonder he was undrafted.  But after returning for a 3rd year of high school baseball, he put up a respectable 1.84 ERA with 11 saves.

Chavez has a decent fastball, but it's his slider that will make him successful in the pros.  He does not have a lot of stamina, but he's got good stuff, good movement, and good control.  He should fit in well in the clubhouse, and is the first of two pitchers NC is hoping to take in this draft.  Jesus will be assigned to Delray Beach (R).

4th Round, #79 Overall
Steve Elliot

Kansas City High School Buzzers - Relief Pitcher

Steve probably flew under the radar during this draft due to his lofty High School ERA and a severe injury he suffered as a Sophomore, but North Carolina decided to take a chance on him in the 4th round.  He's very young, graduating high school early at the age of 16 to join the Aviators organization.  He's got size, at 6'6", and is a real high character guy.  He works hard, has a good head on his shoulders, and he doesn't need to play for a winner.  That's gonna help him in Delray Beach.    Scouts love his control and his movement, although they think his stuff is just average.  He throws a nice curveball, has an average fastball, and has a changeup he might want to never throw again.

He started 9 games for Kansas City High, but he'll be strictly a reliever in the Aviators system.  His ERA as a Sophomore in the bullpen was an even 4.00, but it ballooned to 7.26 as a starter his Junior year.  Scouts have assured us that the elevated ERA was not related to a torn rotator cuff he suffered late in his Sophomore campaign.  Elliot is a great kid, has excellent control, and very well may be a diamond in the rough.

5th Round - #99 Overall
Jeirgif Baisak

International amateur free agent from Russia - Outfielder

Baisak plays all three outfield positions, has good range, a good glove, and a good arm.  He's a great leader, has good speed, is great at stealing bases, and runs the bases like a real pro.  He has great bat control and can lay down bunts either to move the runner over or to reach first base much better than most modern players.  He's just average at the plate, and has below average power.  At this point in the draft, the Aviators are drafting solely for need, and what they need now are (1) outfielders and (2) high character guys.  Baisak may not be a great prospect, but he fits both those bills.  He also will only be 17 years old next season, so there's a chance he could develop into something better.

6th Round - #119 Overall
St?phane Serre

San Luis Obispo College Monsoon - Center Field

Serre is nothing special right now, but we like his leadership and work ethic and think he can help with the development of some of our better outfielders we drafted last year.  He was a stellar defensive player in college.  He has good speed, but is clumsy on the basepaths and not really good at stealing bases.  The 20-year-old will begin his pro career at OBX (A).

7th Round - #139 Overall
Greg McJannett

Ft. Wayne College Steamrollers - Center Field

Another outfielder goes to the Aviators, and another college player at that.  Greg McJannett is already a polished defensive player, and has elite speed. He can steal bases, but gets knocked for poor judgement when trying to stretch singles to doubles.  Greg works hard, and while he's not a top level prospect, he should be able to be an extra outfielder in September at the very least.  A talent bump here or there and he could be a big league center fielder.

In a rare move, the Aviators will assign McJannett to their double-A Greensboro squad straight out of college.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2018, 08:59:02 am by Chappy »
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Re: North Carolina Aviators Draft Notes
« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2018, 10:58:07 am »
2037 Draft Update - First 2 Pro Years

Here's a look at the first 2 pro seasons for each of our 2037 picks!

1st Round, #20 Overall
Steve Campbell


2038 - DB (R) - .209-11-57, 14/20 SB
2039 - OBX (A) - .214-16-50, 20/29 SB
2040 assignment - GRE (AA)

Steve has not hit for as high as an average as we'd hoped thus far, but he's got good speed/power numbers and it big-league-ready defensively with a 7 rating in CF.  He is currently a 4.5 star prospect and will be playing in AA Greensboro at age 19 next season.

2nd Round, #40 Overall
Turd Newton


2038 - OBX (A) - .189-10-46, 13/22 SB
2039 - GRE (AA) - .241-18-64, 21/25 SB
2040 assignment - GRE (AA)

The Turdster had a fantastic rebound from a rough first pro season, which may be our fault for moving him to A ball too soon.  Still, his average is below where we'd like to see it.  He also fanned 119 times, which is unacceptable.  I still see him as a left-handed version of Steve Campbell, but I'd say he's proven a little more than the first rounder has thus far.  It makes sense, since he's 7 months older.  Currently a 4.5 star prospect, not bad at all for the #40 pick.

Round 3, #60 Overall
Steve Larson


2038 - DB (R) - .169-18-55, 15/22 SB
2039 - DB (R) - .262-18-69, 28/53 SB
2040 assignment - OBX (A)

Larson, who will be 20 before the 2040 seasons starts, had to spend a second year in Rookie ball after a dismal .169 average his first year as a pro.  He rebounded nicely, hitting almost 100 points higher in his second pro season.  He hit 48 doubles to go along with 6 triples and his 18 HR.  On the down side, he struck out 178 times and was caught stealing 25 times.  Larson is currently a 4.5 star prospect, just like our first and second round picks from this draft.  Not bad for the #60 pick!

Round 4, #80 Overall
Don Sanford


2038 - DB (R) - .176-3-20 - (-3.0) War
2039 - DB (R) - .304-15-83 - 1.3 WAR
2040 assignment - OBX (A)

Ol' Don Sanford was looking like a bust when he put up terrible numbers in 2038, but he turned scouts heads with a .300+ average in his second season.  He's a good defensive 2B to boot.  Scouts currently rate him as a 2-star prospect, which is respectable for the 80th pick.

5th Round, #100 Overall
Jose Bautista


2038 - DB (R) - .222-19-80
2039 - OBX (A) - .212-12-36
2040 assignment - OBX (A)

Bautista's power has followed him to the pros, but he needs to work on his average, and like all our other picks thus far, reduce those strikeouts.  Bautista will get another year in A-ball to boost his production, but for the 100th pick in the draft, we're pleased with him so far.  He's currently a 2.5 star prospect.

6th Round, #120 Overall
Jesus Reyes

Venezuela - Shortstop

2038 - DB (R) - .255-10-53
2039 - DB (R) - .435-1-2
2040 assignment - OBX (A)

Reyes was productive for a 16-year-old in '38, but he only appeared in 22 games this season despite being healthy.  He was just way down on the depth chart and only plays one position (SS) so he didn't make much noise.  Still, he'll move up to A-ball for his 3rd pro year.  He's slipped to a 0.5 star prospect, but we knew he was a long shot anyway.

7th Round, #140 Overall
Tony Frazier


2038 - DB (R) .137-2-11
2039 - DB (R) .350-3-15
2040 assignment - DB (R)

Tony only appeared in 33 games in '38 and 31 in '39, so he's hoping to get into the starting lineup in Delray Beach this coming season.  He's 20, a bit older than most of the players in Delray, but I still think he's got a small chance at becoming a big leaguer.  He's got good potential in contact and avoiding K's.  Currently a 1.0 star prospect.

8th Round - #160 Overall - Mr. Irrelevant
Danny Brewer


2038 - OBX (A) - .239-8-35
2039 - GRE (AA) - .215-5-19
2040 assignment - GRE (AA)

Danny was the last pick but made it to AA the quickest, although with pretty crappy numbers.  He's a fantastic defensive 3B, but probably won't make the majors unless he's on the list to get called up in September.  Currently a 1.0 star prospect.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2018, 08:23:22 am by Chappy »
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Re: North Carolina Aviators Draft Notes
« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2018, 08:22:45 am »
2039

We failed to make the playoffs, so we have the 8th pick.
We also have Pennsylvania's 2nd round pick (#35 overall), which we acquired in a trade for C Dan Curry.

As far as our needs go, we need 4 infielders, 3 outfielders, 3 starting pitchers, and 1 relief pitcher.  With 9 picks in the draft, we will be drafting for need rather than best available player again this season.  We will fill in the gap (need 11, drafting 9) with players from our international complex.

1st Round, #8 Overall
Nelson Toro
Dominican Republic - Starting Pitcher

I try to steer clear of 16-year-old players until the later rounds, but this draft pool is weak, and Toro is clearly the best player at one of our needed positions.  Scouts peg him as a 3.5 star prospect (I did mention it's a weak pool, right?) with 7 potential in the 3 key categories (Stuff, Movement, Control).  Great stamina, good at holding runners, smart guy with a fantastic work ethic.  He's got 3 potential big league pitches, and a fourth pitch that will probably cause more harm than good.  I'm mentally prepared for him to be a bust like other 16-year-old top 10 picks, but hoping for the best.  He will begin his pro career at Delray Beach (R) this season.

2nd Round, #28 Overall
Wassim Alonso
Calgary High School - Relief Pitcher

Wassim was a surprise pick, mainly because the 21-year-old has been out of baseball for the last few years.  After a successful senior campaign for Calgary High in which he was 3-1 with 11 saves in 21 appearances, Alonso went to college but did not play on the baseball team.  Still, Aviators scouts managed to stage a workout for Alonso, and they saw enough from this young man to take him early in the 2nd round.  In addition to his sharp curve ball, team officials were impressed by his personality; he's a great leader and as smart as they come.  Alonso will be assigned to Delray Beach (R) this season.

2nd Round, #33 Overall (Pick Acquired from Pennsylvania for C Dan Curry)
Eric Adams
Gatineau College - Relief Pitcher

The Aviators took another pitcher with their second pick of the second round.  Eric Adams was a so-so pitcher in High School, racking up a 9-8 record with 4 saves and a 7.36 ERA in his career at Calgary High, where he was teammates with fellow Aviators 2nd round pick Wassim Alonso.  But after high school, Adams found some success at Gatineau College, where he posted a 1.35 ERA.  He left school after his sophomore year to enter the draft, and the Aviators scooped him up.  Like Alonso, Adams is a high character player, something we went after in this draft since there was not a lot of high end talent.  Adams will be assigned to Delray Beach (R) this season.

3rd Round, #48 Overall
Rob Wilson
Long Beach College - Relief Pitcher

The 4th and final pitcher taken by the Aviators was Wilson, who was 3-4 with 12 saves for Long Beach College last year.  The 22-year-old Missouri native has a great fastball and a great change up, and is also known for his ability to hold runners.  Wilson will be assigned to Delray Beach (R) this season.

4th Round, #68 Overall
Ken Bright
Oklahoma City College - Infielder/Outfielder

The first non-pitcher taken by the Aviators came with the 68th pick, Ken Bright.  He's a blue collar player, not particularly skilled in any area but is decent in most areas.  Good speed but not a great base runner.  Bright can play 2nd, SS, 3rd and LF as of right now.  We may try to teach him 1B, CF and RF to make him a versatile backup, since being a backup is probably his ceiling.  He's a man of high character; very loyal, a hard worker, smart, and a good leader.  We don't expect too much from Ken, so we probably won't be disappointed, especially as he begins his pro career in Delray Beach (R).

5th Round, #88 Overall
Joe Witt
Fort Wayne College - Infielder/Outfielder

Witt is very similar to Bright.  Average at a whole lot of things, but not exceptional at any of them.  He's a little further along defensively, but we may still try to get him to play 1B, LF and CF to make him eligible everywhere but C.  He's still what we'd classify as a high character guy, but not to the extent that Bright is.  Witt will be sent to Delray Beach (R).

6th Round, #108 Overall
Ernie Carter
Anchorage College - Left Field

Ernie barely saw any action at Anchorage College last year, appearing in only 6 games.  He hit .556 though, which is pretty good if you are not aware.  A great leader, Carter has a bit more power than our previous two picks, but he only plays LF as of right now.  He'll need some talent bumps if he's going to make it past AA in his career.  He'll be starting out in Rookie Ball with Delray Beach.

7th Round, #128 Overall
Kevin Lucero
Stockton College - Outfielder

Lucero plays all three outfield positions and hit .297 in 228 career games for Stockton College.  He's a bit faster than our prior picks, and can run bases well.  He's a hard worker, but Lucero will need a little luck to make it to the show.  He has no power at all.  He'll show you this summer in Delray Beach (R).

8th Round, #148 Overall
Pat Kuhn
Gatineau College - Outfielder

I don't know if he was on some kind of academic probation, but Kuhn never appeared in a game in his three seasons with Gatineau College.  A high school gold glover, Kuhn did post a .307 career average at Modesto High School.  There's not much separating Kuhn from our other picks, other than his stature.  At 6'4", he's got good size and maybe he will become a decent ballplayer someday.  As of right now, he'll be starting out in Delray Beach (R).
« Last Edit: May 03, 2018, 09:08:48 am by Chappy »
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- 2037, 2046
   
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